With the abundance of financial comments on: Shanghai copper 40160 empty one to continue to hold, the form is difficult to establish a rebound, the entry point is the key

Views：  Date：2015-10-22 11:06:32

Basic analysis:

Through the January-July 2015 and January-July 2014 copper upstream and downstream industry chain, the cumulative growth rate of the product comparison, in fact, only the railway locomotive, the new 220 kV and above the capacity of the substation equipment decreased The range is far greater than the upstream refined copper, copper decline, a lot of product growth rate decline even better than the upstream. We see is the overall industry chain growth rate reduction. Domestic refined copper supply and demand situation may still be based on balance. At the micro level, the apparent consumption of refined copper output + net import in June and July has shown positive growth, but the overall supply of raw materials has decreased in the first 7 months as measured by the copper concentrate, scrap copper and anode copper. 0.96%, and the decline in domestic copper concentrate growth, which means that the domestic supply of copper raw materials tend to tension. Stock, the bonded area of inventory remained at a relatively low level in recent years, said that once the domestic copper consumption rebound, copper prices may be higher.

Since the first half of the domestic real economy more severe pressure in July and August, so, after the parade, September to November, steady growth measures to support the inevitable increase, or from a large consideration must be implemented, making the domestic The long-term economic downturn trend to an appropriate rebound. At the same time, the monetary policy level, the latest deposit interest rates have been lower than the inflation rate, the domestic re-enter the era of negative real interest rates, with the stock market levers lower, the financing costs of physical enterprises are likely to be substantial improvement.

【technical analysis】:

Shanghai copper oversold bounce today, we continue to hold 40160 empty one. Real-time monitoring of the disk, choose jiacang, bad fundamentals do not support large-level rebound in the long-term to continue to empty the same idea.

September 11 Shanghai copper 1511 contract 41260 empty open, the night plate 40860 only profit (positions 40%) choose to open a new single

Shanghai copper 1511 contract 39350 empty single, 39170 only profit (positions 20%)

October 15, Shanghai copper 1512 contract 40160 empty single layout (positions 30%) continue to hold

Grasp the rhythm, control positions, set a good stop profit stop point

Financial analysis with the abundance of financial: Li 153--1883--2898