August 31, 2015

Copper main day for 1511 opened at 39,350 yuan / ton, opening shocks down high, intraday shocks down, closing 39200, down 0.13%.

Spot: Shanghai electrolytic copper spot today on the month of the contract reported premium of 70 yuan / ton - premium 30 yuan / ton, flat copper transaction price 39,220 yuan / ton 39,300 yuan / ton, premium copper transaction price 38,240 yuan / ton -39320 yuan /Ton. Shanghai copper pared gains, the end of the last trading day, coupled with the lack of external disk market guidelines, a sharp decline in participation, copper is still a slight premium to maintain the state, the transaction market conditions significantly less than last week, and more to wait until tomorrow into September after the relevant operations, the actual Turnover scarce.

Macro, the euro zone economic sentiment index in August rose to 104.2 from 104.0 last month, better than the expected value of 103.8, and the highest in June 2011 to the highest level; August service boom index from 8.9 last month rose to 10.2, Or better than the expected value of 8.7. The Eurozone industrial sentiment index fell to -3.7 in August from the previous month's -2.9, less than the expected value of 3.1. The business sentiment index fell to 0.21 in August, less than the expected value of 0.34, while the previous reading was revised from 0.39 to 0.41. Consumer confidence index final value of -6.9, in line with expectations, the initial value of -6.8. Data show that the high side.

US core PCE price index in July than expected annual rate is expected to grow 1.3%, the actual growth of 1.2%. At the same time announced the US personal income in July rose 0.4% monthly rate, in line with expectations. The United States August University of Michigan consumer confidence index fell to 92.9, lower than the market expected 93.5, July final value of 93.1.8 University of Michigan expected index fell to 83.8, is expected to 84,7 final value of 84.1; August status index initial value fell to 107.1, is expected to 107,7 the final value of 107.2. Data show bearish.

Industry: Codelco, the world's largest copper producer, increased its copper production in the first half of 2015, but the decline in copper prices eroded the company's earnings. In the first six months of 2015, Codelco's own projects produced 831,000 tonnes of copper, an increase of 5.5% over the same period in 2014, boosted by new projects such as Ministro Hales. But the company's revenue fell more than 30% to 875 million US dollars, the recent impact of the collapse of copper prices to a certain extent, due to the cost of the relaxation. Analysis of the message seems bearish.

Capital face: Today, the top 20 positions in more than a single holding 1859 hand to 177130 hands, including long positions in no major changes in members; the top ten positions in the domestic holdings of 426 short hand to 178,971 hands, of which short positions of no significant changes in membership. Analysis of short-term bias seems neutral.

On the whole, the euro zone economic climate index in August and service climate index was better than expected, or suggesting that the follow-up economy will not be more serious decline, after the euro zone economic growth showed a slight slowdown in the second quarter. US PCE price index is less than expected, indicating that the US economy is still a certain distance from the inflation rate, the United States in August University of Michigan consumer confidence index initial value is less than expected, or the US interest rate expectations during the year affected. Expected Shanghai copper short-term adjustment 37000-40000 interval shock. for reference only.

Guangzhou Futures Research Institute

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