11, during the domestic holiday, the US economic data continue to take a good market for the United States gradually entered the interest rate cycle is expected to become increasingly strong, and the dollar has gradually entered a strong cycle, laying a long-term weakness in copper prices pattern. But SHFE and LME exchange copper stocks are still in the relatively low since 2013, short-term copper prices have some support. Technically, copper prices continued to weaken after the previous, the recent LME index in the vicinity of 6600, COMX index in 3.0 near the key support level there are signs of stabilization. The market outlook should be noted that the emergence of short-term technical rally, but the overall trend of copper prices continue to see the weak long-term.

The dollar rising trend established

Overall, with the US real estate market and manufacturing recovery to accelerate, its employment growth and consumption increase in the virtuous cycle is also increasingly stable, the market for the United States gradually entered the interest rate cycle is expected to become increasingly strong, with the emerging market economy cooling Of the hot money back, making the dollar will gradually enter a strong cycle, a number of strong financial attributes of commodities, such as precious metals, base metals and other varieties will usher in a longer bear market cycle. At present relative to other metal varieties, copper still enjoy a high financial premium, the dollar will make its financial properties to play back, prices gradually return to the vicinity of the cost line.

The supply of loose copper concentrate from the conduction to the refined copper market

At present, the market for copper concentrate will gradually enter the supply of the basic expectations of the same loose cycle. ICSG is expected in 2015 global copper mine production capacity supply or growth of 8.21%, the growth rate is significantly higher than the 2005-2012 global copper concentrate supply 1.5% average growth rate. Among them, the excess copper concentrate is mainly reflected in the processing fee on the rise.

Data show that in September, copper concentrates TC / RC rose to 125-135 US dollars / ton, 12.5-13.5 cents / lb level, much higher than the beginning of the copper concentrate set long-term price. In the next period of time, due to the gradual liberalization of supply of mining, processing fees increased significantly, will stimulate the enthusiasm of the domestic smelter, copper concentrate excess supply situation will be gradually transmitted to the refined copper market.

Latest data show that China's refined copper production in August increased 7.4% over the previous month, to 680,128 tons, beat the November 2013 record high of 654,803 tons, representing an increase of 20.16% over the same period last year. January-August 2014, China's refined copper production increased by 11.17%, to 4.93 million tons. Chinese copper smelters are planning to increase purchases of copper concentrates in the global market in the next one to two months due to rising processing costs, according to sources at China Metal Network. The recent pan-Pacific Copper Company said in a statement, is expected in 2015 the global copper market supply will be an excess 193,000 tons. In the long run, the supply of loose copper concentrate from the conduction to the refined copper market, the formation of copper prices to suppress.

Outlook and Strategy Suggestion

Based on the above analysis, the future of the copper market will continue to supply shortages gradually closer to the supply of excess, in the absence of large-scale copper production enterprises cut off or large-scale workers strike the case, the third quarter copper market supply is expected to increase long-term supply will be more relaxed . Demand, the domestic economic downturn also makes the Chinese copper consumption of the largest power industry investment is less than expected. Strong dollar in the cycle, the pattern of long-term weakness in copper prices is difficult to reverse, short-term technical rebound in the market should not be too optimistic. Operation, the early position of a good single-empty long-term can hold short-term should not be too empty to rebound to an important pressure near the short-selling strategy for the relatively safe choice, 1412 copper contract concerned about 48500,49000 line near the main line Important stress.