The trend to the good machinery industry structure has yet to be strengthened

If we summarize the economic performance of China's machinery industry in the first half of this year, that is, the overall trend continues to improve, the main business income profit rate of record high, structural adjustment efforts to be strengthened.

The first half of the impressive performance for the development of the industry laid a good foundation, but in a number of uncertain factors, is expected in the second half of the growth rate will fall month by month. China Machinery Industry Federation forecast: machinery industry annual production and sales growth rate of up to 20%; profit growth rate of about 20%; export growth rate of about 15%.

In the machine executive vice president Cai Weici said that some of the industry's excessive production capacity is worrying, it is recommended that companies do not blindly expand production, should increase the structural strength, the second half of the exchange rate changes should be given enough attention.

A data

Overall good part of the product appears to fall

Statistics show that the first half of the machinery industry in general continued since the fourth quarter of last year's pick up trend, production and sales growth of more than 35% growth rate in recent years, a new high. In the first half of the year, the total industrial output value and sales output value of the machinery industry were 6.59 trillion yuan and 6.44 trillion yuan respectively, up by 36.94% and 37.94% respectively over the same period of last year, which rebounded significantly by 7.26% and 6.79% 31.15 percentage points. The first half of this year, has 3,4,5,6 for four consecutive months of production and sales in more than 1 trillion yuan.

From the breakdown of data, the machinery industry 1 to May increase of 24.4% year on year growth rate of growth in the industry's first industry; product sales rate of 97.63%, an increase of 0.62 percentage points; profit of 356.6 billion yuan, 86.13%; the main business income profit rate of 6.94%, an increase of 1.62 percentage points, reaching the highest level in history; new product research and development tends to be active, the machinery industry 1 to May total output value of new products 10141 billion yuan, an increase of 46.24% , Significantly faster than the same period the total industrial output value of 38.93% year on year growth rate.

It is noteworthy that, in the machinery industry overall operation of the better situation, there are still some major product output down. 14 kinds of products decreased by year on year mainly: large tractors, combine harvesters and other agricultural products, transformers, hydropower equipment and other electrical equipment, as well as metal rolling mill and other metallurgical machinery.

In the machine that, although the rate of decline in the product is not large, but in the industry as a whole and agricultural products and other subsidies are still strong situation, the decline of the problem is very costly.

In view of the increase in the stock of large horsepower tractors and the increase in accounts receivable, the relevant explanation given by the relevant person in charge of the Agricultural Machinery Association is that, on the one hand, the market saturation is relatively improved in recent years, and on the other hand, in March this year, Only to finalize, in May began to implement, missed the climax of the market.

In view of the decline of metallurgical equipment, heavy machinery Association official said that the first half of this year, the overall operation of the metallurgical equipment industry, but the export situation is not optimistic. Large state-owned enterprises have poor metallurgical equipment performance. It is noteworthy that, in the assessment of enterprises, the outstanding performance of the Dalian Heavy Industry Crane Group mainly rely on wind power equipment pull, if the removal of this part of the proportion of rolling mill as the representative of the metallurgical industry decline will be greater than the existing data.

B analysis

The slowdown in the industry is still cautiously optimistic

Experts believe that the first half of the high growth rate is lower than the same period last year, the base is closely related. With the second quarter of last year after the rapid rise in the base, the second half of this year, the machinery industry growth rate will be declining month by month trend.

From the first half of the year-on-year growth rate of output growth trend, the machinery industry, the industry average down 2 percentage points, according to this trend, the annual growth rate may be reduced to 20% to 25%. From the trend of changes in profit growth, 1 to May than in January to February year-on-year growth rate fell 54 percentage points. Among them, the auto industry growth rate of the most obvious decline: the auto industry 1 to 2 month output growth rate of 81. 61%, 1 to May fell to 54.16%, growth rate down 27 percentage points; 1 to 2 months to achieve profit growth The rate of 382. 73%, 1 to May fell to 144.00%, the growth rate fell 238 percentage points.

From the domestic and international situation facing the machinery industry, on the one hand, the state macroeconomic policy is to maintain the steady and rapid economic development and enhance flexibility and pertinence, which will help the second half of the machinery industry to achieve steady growth. Moreover, the first half of the ultra-high growth has been to achieve rapid growth throughout the year laid a good foundation; the other hand, domestic and foreign uncertainties still exist. In the machine that the face of complex and difficult domestic and international economic environment, industry and enterprises to fully estimate the development of the industry face a variety of problems.

C prediction

Annual growth rate will be high before the low potential of the basic pieces of the potential to upgrade

In the second half of the year on year growth rate will continue to decline month by month, the annual growth rate curve will show before the high to low, month by month trend, but the machinery industry this year, the cumulative Compared with the previous year can achieve double-digit growth, that is, production and sales growth rate of up to 20%; profit growth rate of up to 20%; export growth rate of up to 15%.

For the machinery industry in the next period of time the trend, the special consultant in the machine Sui Yongbin said, "happy not up." In his view, the state for the national economic security 8 introduced a number of targeted policy measures, from the current development, the steel industry on the new projects less, nuclear power is also a certain period of time ahead of the "high", wind power projects Also else. Therefore, he suggested that the whole industry should pay more attention to the market demand in all areas of the national economy.

In addition, despite the first half of China's machinery industry, new product output value of success, but the progress of industry restructuring is not satisfactory, after the financial crisis era of structural adjustment seems to be difficult to push forward.

Experts believe that, on the one hand since last year, components and raw material prices, industry operating costs, on the other hand by the macro-control policies effectively driven by the industry market steadily, on this basis, some companies are still keen on capacity expansion, While ignoring the importance of structural adjustment and urgency. To export, for example, China's export product structure improvement is still long way to go. To the CNC machine tool industry, for example, CNC machine products last year, the average unit price of 28,000 US dollars, this year has dropped to 22,000 US dollars, the processing center from last year's price of 88,000 US dollars fell to 72,000 US dollars this year. Air separation plant exports the average unit price of 57,000 US dollars, the product grade is not as good as last year.

In the machine expert committee Zheng Guowei told reporters that after the financial crisis, China's exports of mechanical products and there is no much improvement, this issue should cause enough attention.

Dongxing Securities machinery industry analyst Yang Liping also said that from the development of the machinery industry, the second half of this year, the task of structural adjustment is very heavy, the introduction of relevant policies for the industry to provide an opportunity for structural adjustment. Especially the basic piece of industrial upgrading space is huge, she is very optimistic about the second half of the basic sector of the industry's investment potential.

According to the analysis, in 2009 China's basic machinery industry, the total output value of 917.1 billion yuan, nearly 6 years compound annual growth rate of more than 30%, but the overall still low value-added products, industry concentration is not high, the foundation is still weak. Since 2003, the basic pieces in 2007, 2008 to achieve trade surplus, the remaining years are deficit.

At present, China's basic parts industry imports mainly for aviation, high-speed rail, automobile, nuclear power, engineering machinery, CNC machine tools and other key parts of the industry supporting. China's equipment manufacturing industry to upgrade the requirements and policy attention and other factors, China's basic development is facing a historic opportunity. Equipment manufacturing industry to upgrade the key to upgrade the basic pieces of its import substitution space is huge.

Equipment manufacturing industry restructuring and revitalization of the introduction of the plan, the country for the first time in a comprehensive industry documents proposed to improve the level of basic pieces of manufacturing. Revitalization plan involved in the basic elements of the "target" clear: the basic pieces of the manufacturing level has been improved, the basic parts to meet the basic needs of the domestic market, the key automated measurement and control components to fill the gaps, special raw materials to achieve key breakthroughs. Specific to the product, focusing on the development of large castings and forgings, precision bearings, precision molds and special steel and other basic products.

From the development of the bearing industry, the industry nearly 9 years compound sales growth rate of 17.7%, but imports are still large, 2009 imports of 2.83 billion US dollars, to achieve a deficit of $ 810 million. Comparison of the development of the Japanese bearing industry, China's industrial restructuring of bearing products, import substitution and exports have a larger space.

In the foundry industry, China's casting output nearly 8 years compound growth rate of 11.4%, but still low value-added products. The future, non-ferrous alloy casting and other products of the larger growth space for the automotive, machine tools, new energy supporting the development of high-performance casting better prospects; casting industry industry concentration is also conducive to the promotion of quality enterprises. Moreover, in addition to bearings, castings, liquid airtight and other basic sub-sectors also exist structural adjustment, industrial upgrading of the huge space.